What is the TPI?
The Total Portfolio Indicator synthesizes four of the sharpest macro newsletter feeds into a single composite signal that tells you, in one glance, whether the macro regime is favorable to risk assets, neutral, or hostile.
The Sources
We curate four signals — each provides an independent read on global liquidity, cross-asset risk, and Bitcoin's macro position. They were chosen because their analytical frameworks are different enough to genuinely diversify the signal, and rigorous enough to be worth weighting.
- Michael Howell / CrossBorder Capital3–4×/week
Global liquidity cycle, capital flows, risk appetite — the gravitational force behind every asset class.
Short-term: 15%Long-term: 45% - Darius Dale / 42 MacroDaily
GRID regime framework, cross-asset risk dashboards, and quantitative regime classification.
Short-term: 45%Long-term: 10% - Nik Bhatia / The Bitcoin Layer3–4×/week
TBL liquidity indicator, dollar cycle, and Bitcoin's role as macro collateral.
Short-term: 25%Long-term: 20% - Charles Edwards / CaprioleWeekly
Bitcoin on-chain plus macro scoring and cycle position — production-grade quantitative crypto.
Short-term: 15%Long-term: 25%
How the Composite Works
Each source's latest signal carries a score in [-1, +1]. We compute two weighted averages:
- Short-term TPI — weights skew toward fast-moving regime calls (42 Macro, Bitcoin Layer).
- Long-term TPI — weights skew toward slow-moving cycle calls (Howell, Capriole).
The composite blends them 0.4 × short + 0.6 × long, with recency decay applied to older signals. Confidence is reported when all four sources are fresh and aligned.
Regime Thresholds
Overweight risk assets — BTC, ETH, growth equities.
Balanced allocation — wait for the tape to commit.
Defensive positioning — cash, gold, duration.
Disclaimer
This dashboard is research, not financial advice. The TPI synthesizes third-party newsletter analysis and should be used as one input among many in your own decision-making. Past regime calls do not guarantee future performance. Don't bet the farm on any single signal — least of all this one.